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Richard Gifford: Studies have been done that indicate clouds form by seeding from cosmic radiation. We've been in a solar minimum phase for a while, and are only just now starting to climb out of that into the beginnings of solar activity for Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). Additional studies have been done that indicate that matter from the sun, particularly from CMEs, "sweeps away" cosmic radiation, causing something called a Forbush Decrease (a reduction in cosmic radiation), which can reduce cloud levels by about 2%. During solar maximum, when solar activity peaks, CMEs and other flare related activity (and particulate from the sun) can increase dramatically, having a pronounced effect on reducing cloudcover. We are only in the mere beginnings of the increase in solar activity for SC25. It is supposed to peak around 2026 or so. If these studies are correct, that clouds are primarily seeded by cosmic radiation and that a Forbush Decrease will reduce cloud cover, then in the coming years, notably near peak and a year or so after as high solar activity begins to settle, then that is good news for astrophotographers. It should mean that we see a progressive then marked decrease in cloud cover, and a period of time of less cloudcover, before SC25 declines and we fall back into solar minimum. There are some other factors, and the interleave of solar cycles with the lunar cycle (there IS a lunar cycle!! it is approximately 18.6 years long, vs. the 11 year sunspot cycle or 21 year solar cycles (which overlap in pairs to produce the 11-year sunspot sycle)). Depending on the exact nature of how the solar and lunar cycles are interleaved, that may affect exactly how weather pans out during SC25's peak in 2026/2027. Additionally, there are also the decadal oscillations of the pacific and atlantic oceans, which also has an impact. I honestly don't know of any studies that try to collate the effects of ALL of these cycles together, so I can't really speculate on exactly how SC25 will pan out at peak. I do hope, however, that it will result in a reduction of cloudcover thanks to an increased amount of FDs. I remember the last solar cycle peak. SC24 was a bi-modal cycle, peaking in late 2012 and again in 2014. There was a lull in 2013, although activity was still higher than solar minimums. I started AP in late 2012, and really got into it in 2014. The amount of clear nights back in 2013, 2014 and 2015 was off the charts, compared to any time since. I would have to say 2014 and 2015 were the best years I've ever seen. There is a growing effort to study the effects of cosmic radiation on clouds, as well as study of the effects of solar activity on cloudcover. I would keep an eye on that stuff, as the next few years should be quite telling as to how much these factors affect weather and climate. |
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"Up here" in Sweden, astro darkness is gone until mid August, so the gear is in summer storage. We only have about 7 months per year to do any imaging. A few years ago, I was in a situation similar to yours, few clear nights with sometimes only a few clear hours. Luckily we moved to a darker area and I was able to build an observatory. This really makes a difference. Instead of having a set up time close to an hour, I can now be imaging in just a few minutes. The scope is always polar aligned, which means I can prepare before darkness, and have everything ready when it's dark enough. There's also no tear down time, so I can image untill it gets light or until it's clouded over. The observatory allows me to use clear nights much more efficiently than before. Without it I would probably have sold my gear a long time ago. Btw, if you can't have an observatory, there are simpler solutions. This roll away shed worked for me until the observatory was ready.  cs, Wim |
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According to Google we are in the peak of the solar cycle now (early 2024) so does this mean things could improve this year? |
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Hi Guillermo, I certainly feel your pain. Here in "Sunny Surrey" UK, we've only had 4 or 5 "somewhat" clear night since January. Sometime, just sometimes, in a brief moment of despair, I also wonder if I've made a good investment - but fortunately - it's only a passing thought! At times, I also consider the possibility of a remote set up given I've no plans to move outside of the UK anytime soon. But the reality is, when I think about the time left over after work and family, if I have no clear skies, I have a great opportunity to continue studying the craft, improving my processing skills, learning about astronomy and the objects I image (or would like to) and also idea generation, i.e. seeing what others are doing (refining techniques). Lurking in forums like these (what we're doing now!) are a part of that. I recognise many names of those commenting on this very post which tells you what others do when the skies are grey. Then before you know it, it's time to go to sleep. In my case, I've anticipated this situation to some degree. Because of the loss of astronomical darkness here in the UK from late May until mid August, I've also invested in a dedicated solar scope (Lunt DS 80mm) and re-purposed my 130mm triplet to pair with a quark for solar imaging. So whenever we have a few hours of clear daytime skies, out come the solar scopes. This, in addition to the fact that I usually run at least 4 scopes (refractors, newts, SCTs) at night from my garden at any point during the year (well, when there are clear skies) means that although some projects will be unfinished, I still have a backlog (currently at least 20 - 30 projects  ) that have yet to be processed. So between DSO or solar projects, I've got something to do during the summer months, or when we're going through a clear sky drought.I also have alternate locations saved in my Clear Outside app in case other parts of the UK are enjoying clear nights - though I've yet to enjoy any success since most of the UK has been getting the same cloud medicine... In any event, when one calculates the amount of alternatives one has when not imaging, whether it is investing more time with family, studying or anything else, you will quickly appreciate the time well spent in other equally important endeavours. Before you know it, as Jon Rista pointed out, the tide may turn, and you may end up with more clear nights than you ever anticipated. The question may very well be: What have you done to prepare for it? When in doubt, do what I do: Go over to one of your scopes, run your hands along the ota and say, "now look at you...aren't you pretty...my goodness, can't believe I managed to build you..."  Always makes me feel better...Yeah, I'm with Chris White: There is no life outside of Astro  |
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| After reading the posts, I should probably not tell about the skies here in the NW gulf coast of Florida. It may be too painful for some. |
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| Don't be that Guy! Misery loves company... |
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Never dispair ! Tonight the forecasts were grim for the Lake of Geneva region. Nevertheless, I took a look outside and... the sky was perfectly clear and dark, 20.75 on my SQM ! So I ran to my dome and 3 minutes later, my scope was on M 3. Philippe |
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Tim Ray: Well OK, but... So last week I got 17 hours of keeper 10 minute subs on a target over three nights. Threw out some for the occasional, isolated puff of cloud. We average around two to four clear nights every two weeks, and sometimes we complain about the weather. Not often, but sometimes. |
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| I'm shooting galaxies through clouds. If this isn't serious addiction I don't know what it is... |
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Richard Gifford:According to Google we are in the peak of the solar cycle now (early 2024) so does this mean things could improve this year? I don't think we are at peak yet. The predictions were for 2026. It looks like a new "best fit" puts it mid 2025 now... So maybe its peaking earlier? But we wouldn't be there yet, at least I hope not... I frequent solarham.net to keep an eye on solar activity. If we are at peak, then this is a pretty weak solar cycle, as while we have some sunspots, activity is not even remotely close to SC23, and based on my recollection it doesn't seem as active as SC24 (which was a weak cycle, weakest since the Maunder and Dalton minimums hundreds of years ago) during the second peak in 2024. If SC25 is going to be anything like SC23, where sunspot counts hit 300, then we have a long way to go. I guess, if this is indeed going to be a weak cycle, and we have peaked...then, I wouldn't bet much on the weather changing... We've had only a few X-class flares and earth-directed CMEs and while they do seem to have had some impact, its nothing like a normal 300 to 350-count solar cycle, or even a strong 200-250 count cycle. SC24 was bi-modal. It peaked twice over three years. SC25 could do the same, perhaps. EDIT: Well, this is odd. Looking at this data, they are showing that SC25 already peaked in mid to late 2023 (??): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression They also show that SC23 peaked a bit later than I remember...I remember it peaking in 1998. This shows SC23 as being bi-modal as well, with a 1999 peak and another in 2001. I spend plenty of time on Solar Ham, and I DO NOT believe that sunspot counts topped 160 last year... There were sunspots, and M and C class flares, but solar activity was really relatively calm...at least according to Solar Ham reporting. |
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Dave Rust: *** I'd love to be able to shoot even two nights month! *** |
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I don't think there is much that can be done about bad weather other than planning ahead and being prepared for the few nights where it is clear. I say this being a person that is almost always unprepared for when clear nights grace us. Obviously it helps if you can be mobile and move around. Not all astro setups are amenable to this but landscape astrophotograghy with a DSLR and deep space astro with small wide field refactors are very amenable to this. There is also the possibility of going on astrophotograpghy vacations/tours (if money and time isn't a limiting factor. Another thing to focus on when the weather is bad, is to sharpen and develop post processing skills (and taking good notes). |
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Kept poking around on solar cycles. Found this newer (from 2020) information on something called the Solar Cycle Termination Event. Its pretty interesting, and it could mean that SC25 still has a ways to go, and that it could be quite strong: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/06/11/the-termination-event/ The overlapping nature of cycles and the progression of eletromagnetic energy from the poles to the equator, I knew about, but the notion that the faster the next cycle occurs the stronger it will be, is new to me. If this concept of a faster SC25 termination event is true, then it might still become a strong cycle, and that could be good news for astrophotographers (if the science on cosmic radiation seeding clouds and Forbush Decreases reducing cosmic radiation levels is all true, barring any other major intervention from the lunar or oceanic oscillations.) |
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I feel your pain about the weather...The way I´m fighting with the bad weather is the fast scopes (f3 + f4,9) which can be easily handeled by myself every time I see nice clear skies in the evening and feasible weather forecast..which is not exactly often  . I do have two rigs - reflector / refractor and split them for some time periods over the year. Have them completely ready, mounted under the pergola (just covered by some tarp)..this way I can maximize my imaging time. Lucky I´m strong enough to carry the weight by myself for about 5 meters the the designated spot on my backyard. Our dogs always ready tu assist and get under my feet  Of course I live in Bortle 5 area so it has certain disadvantages as you can imagine. But I´m very flexible about imaging this way.  |
